Additional Information related to GDP Estimates Received After Release of Q1 Estimates of FY 2026-27

  New Delhi. Asal Baat news. The Ministry has released the Updated Series of Annual and Quarterly GDP estimates with base year 2022-23 on 31...

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New Delhi.

Asal Baat news.

The Ministry has released the Updated Series of Annual and Quarterly GDP estimates with base year 2022-23 on 31st August 2026. These GDP Estimates were updated using New Series of Output Producer Price Index (PPI); Banking Services Price Index (BkSPI) with the base year 2022-23 and updated data from various administrative sources. 

The additional information being released now is mainly related to the adoption of double deflation methodology and consequent negative implicit deflators, its comparison with other deflation indices such as CPI and WPI, gap between nominal and real GVA/GDP, discrepancy between GDP estimates from production/income and expenditure side, comparison of new and old series growth rates, etc. To bring more clarity, the Ministry has brought out these additional questions and answers for the use of various stakeholders as per the Annexure.

Annexure

Questions and Answers related to GDP estimates

1. How can the manufacturing sector record a negative inflation in GVA implicit deflator of “-1.5%” in Q1, 2026-27 despite increase in both manufacturing output and input prices while the agricultural sector recorded a positive inflation rate of 3.9%?

Response:

A negative inflation in implicit deflator in manufacturing does not mean that manufacturing prices have fallen. It is important to distinguish between the price deflators of output and inputs and the implicit Gross Value Added (GVA) deflator.

Under the double-deflation approach, output and intermediate consumption of the manufacturing sector are deflated separately and real GVA is obtained as real output minus real intermediate consumption. Therefore, when input prices increase faster than output prices, the relative price movement can result in nominal GVA growing more slowly than real GVA. Consequently, the implicit GVA deflator, which is derived by comparing nominal GVA with real GVA, can show negative inflation even though both output and input prices are rising.

Importantly, a negative GVA deflator does not mechanically imply lower real growth. Real GVA growth depends on the relative movements in real output and real intermediate consumption.

An illustration to understand the above scenario is given below: